[A Reader,
Ian B, comments on yesterday's post and his question deserves a fuller treatment than afforded by space on the comments page. It raises issues which may of wider interest. My reply follows.]
Thank you,
Ian B, for asking your question and for the polite manner by which you express your perplexity and disagreement.
You will note that the blog is about
Adam Smith’s Lost Legacy and has been published since February 2005, during which time I have addressed the “invisible hand” on many – probably on most – occasions.
Economics as a discipline has many problems when dealing with the history of its ideas. Among these we can list several ideas wrongly attributed to
Adam Smith, the invisible hand being a prime example.
Few people who quote from
Wealth Of Nations, 1776, or his earlier,
Moral Sentiments, 1759, have read either of his works and many know very little about him. The minority who have read his works, often attribute to him ideas he never had nor expressed. They go with the flow, like a crowd of latter-day flatterers cheering the proverbial ‘naked emperor’.
The metaphor of the “invisible hand”, used only three times by
Adam Smith, once only in each in his two books, and once in his ‘juvenile essay’ on
Astronomy, commenced when he was a 21-years old student at Oxford. It was published posthumously in 1795.
The metaphor itself, however, was a popular literary metaphor in both classical times, before the fall of Rome, and from the 17th century through to the 21st century (it appears in one of the “Tarzan" novels). I know of over 40 independent instances of its use, many in books in
Adam Smith’s library.
Hence, on the starting-line for a debate on the significance of the “invisible hand” for
Adam Smith, we have a popular literary metaphor, his use not commented upon in his lifetime by his readers, and hardly commented upon until the late 19th century by anybody. From mid-20th century until today, floods of references to “Smith’s invisible hand” appear – nowadays daily - and so frequently, that the metaphor and
Adam Smith are almost synonymous.
Most comments upon his isolated use of the metaphor impute various meanings to it, for which there is scant evidence that
Smith regarded it as imputed(your example is fairly common; but there are many others that are complex, general, and even theological).
In brief then, what do we make of the metaphor of “an invisible hand”? You state that the metaphor is: “
simply the (surely reasonable) observation that the economy is self ordering due to the selfish actions of its agents.”
With that view you jump two centuries from
Adam Smith’s in
Wealth Of Nations. My observation is that whatever the truth of your view, perfectly fine if it is your name only, but it was not
Adam Smith’s, and the claim that it was is a “myth”.
You may protest that whatever
Smith said or meant is less relevant than the “
surely reasonable” observation of many economists that the economy is “
self-ordering due to the selfish action of its agents”.
Well, of course,
Adam Smith did not consider self-interest to be “selfish”; in fact he went some ways to reject selfishness as an operational motive in economic (and social) transactions. In his earlier work,
Moral Sentiments, he explicitly rejected such ideas, as expressed by his earlier “licentious” contemporary,
Bernard Mandeville in his “
Fable of the Bees” (“Public vice, public virtues”), 1734. (There are several earlier posts on Lost Legacy discussing these particular points.)
I shall move on. You confirm that the metaphor of an “invisible hand”, as understood today, is derived from
Adam Smith’s use of it in
Wealth Of Nations and you assert that there is “
plenty of evidence that confirms Smith's invisible hand - the less regulated the market, the more ordered it is”.
Two problems with your assertion: first
Smith never said anything like this in
Wealth Of Nations, and second, he found in the case of banking in mid-18th-century Scotland that the absence of certain necessary regulations caused turmoil in the banking sector and required the intervention of law, noting, en passant, that even though this was “
a manifest violation of natural liberty” it was necessary because their actions otherwise “
endanger[ed] the security of the whole society” (WN II.ii.94: 324).
Let us now look at
Smith’s actual use of the “invisible hand” metaphor. First, he used the metaphor only once in
Wealth Of Nations; second his use had nothing to do with markets, supply and demand, the absence of regulations, or prices. Those associations for it were invented in the second half of the 20th century by modern economists.
Smith discusses the distortion of the British economy by the diversion of merchants’ capital from the home trade to foreign trade in Europe and with the British colonies in North America. From the British monopoly of all trade with its colonies, and the monopoly influence of the Acts of Navigation (imposed since Cromwell’s time), merchants’ foreign trade could be highly profitable compared to local trade. Likewise, in respect of trade with Europe. However, there were higher risks in such profitable trade: shipping losses, poor investments, local fraud in foreign countries and the colonies, and long delays in turning-over capital for re-use.
Some merchants, but manifestly not all, preferred to invest locally in Britain because, though less profitable, it was more secure for them. It was these merchants that
Smith focused on:
“…
the annual revenue of every society is always precisely equal to the exchangeable value of the whole annual produce of its industry, or rather is precisely the same thing with that exchangeable value. As every individual, therefore, endeavours as much as he can both to employ his capital in the support of domestic industry, and so to direct that industry that its produce may be of the greatest value; every individual necessarily labours to render the annual revenue of the society as great as he can. He generally, indeed, neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it. By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention” (WN IV.II.ii.9: 456).
All merchants are motivated to use their capital most profitably and the only difference between those merchants who engage in foreign trade and those who engage in domestic trade is that the latter do so because of their concerns for their “own security”. We now call this risk aversion.
Smith explains that it is their insecurity that leads them to do what they do. In fact, no other explanation is given nor needed.
However, he goes on to point out that their actions have unintentional and unintended consequences, specifically that “
By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it”, and it this outcome (society is wealthier, measured by the “
annual output of the necessaries, conveniences, and amusements of life”, or what we now call GNP) that people are “led by [NOT “as if by”] an invisible hand”.
But he has already identified the subject of the metaphor: their “own security”. And here we can agree: “
no such hand actually exists”, but much of the profession, since the 1950s, has come to believe that there is “
an invisible hand”, guiding the market, prices, supply and demand, general equilibrium, social harmony and so on, and on most campuses teach their students to believe that the metaphor is a real object, that it exists, when manifestly it doesn’t, at least to
Adam Smith.
It is that “
part of Smith's invisible hand [which] is mythical” in my view.
I hope I have elucidated the issues which you raise and reduced, if only a little, your “perplexity” upon reading
Lost Legacy for the first time.
Labels: Invisible Hand, Mercantile Political Economy, Risk Aversion