Friday, October 31, 2014


Marc Horn posts on Market Oracle (Financial Maekwts Analysis and Forecasting) HERE 
“Stock Market S&P Index MAP Wave Analysis Forecast”
“I have been looking for this for a while:
‘Over lunch at the Bank of England, Keynes tells Henry Clay of his hopes that Adam Smith’s ‘invisible hand’ can help Britain out of the economic hole it is in: “I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand which I tried to eject from economic thinking twenty years ago’ (11 April 1946).
Still today we follow Keynesian economics where he himself shortly before his death felt that his theories were not the solution to our economic woes, but Adam Smiths invisible hand from the 1700’s was more reliable! Yet we persist to follow his economic theories despite his warning as our primary model almost globally!
But then again it suits those in power in our corrupt political systems – keep the people stupid and they are easier to control (rape and pillage would be a better description!) but the end game is always the same – revolution where the elite just change from one group to another… [by] doing everything possible to kill the dollar as the global reserve currency with its attitude of totally ignoring international law and applying the shear fact that you use US dollars for a transaction that they have jurisdiction and they will prosecute you if they feel they want to. … The only way people can overcome this is by using anything but the dollar! This in turn is imploding the global economy as Americans find it extremely difficult to open bank accounts outside of the US as they clearly are “tax avoiders” which is killing investment precisely when it is needed!

This is an example of Adam Smith’s invisible hand at work. …It is time to dramatically change the political system before it is too late! … We have failed lawyers running our countries with zero economic experience, supported by economic academics who also would not make it in the real world and also have zero experience! This is like going to a paediatrician if you want brain surgery.

The Euro will collapse because there was not a European debt as the US$ has. … This is another example of Adam Smith’s invisible hand at work. Politicians cannot overcome their self interest and acknowledge there are fundamental structural flaws in the Euro and will sooner lead to another war in Europe before admitting they are wrong because then their incomes and pensions will be at risk, but in their eyes that will be someone else’s mess to sort out once they leave office!”
Well what can we say? Marc Hom certainly writes with confidence.  Of his financial advice I have nothing to say, or his apparent suspicions of politicians, of whom I have no idea to who he refers.
However, of his assertions about Adam Smith’s supposed “invisible hand”, I can confirm Marc is wildly inaccurate about when the IH Metaphor is supposed to be “at work”.  Metaphors are never ‘at work’ because they are figures of speech that, in Smith’s case, in his three uses of the metaphor, he describes how motivated humans choose intentionally to act in pursuit of what they regard as their self-interests. Their actions have intended outcomes.  They also may have unintended outcomes. But the unintended outcomes are the result of the actions that led them to their initial actions.
That unintended outcomes can arise for good or ill are irrelevant to the original motives of the intended actions. This distinction is of paramount importance because 20th-century economists, contemplating Adam Smith’s use of the ‘invisible hand’ metaphor, leapt over the limited description of  the object of the metaphor, and extended it to unintended consequence of the subsequent events. In doing so they gave the “invisible hand” a mystical, even miraculous role as leading people to the unintded consequences of their initially limited intended consequence.  
In fact, this error brought a wholly theological element to the ordinary behaviour of human beings. Some entity - God say - was micro-managing the economy!  Hence, Marc comments three times with what he claims are “examples of Adam Smith’s invisible hand at work”. Not at all. They are three unexplained examples of the modern myth of the “invisible hand” asserted by Marc allied to a contentious semi-theoretical assertion about some vast malign conspiracy by ruling elites in modern states.
But just in case anybody follwing his analysis and associated advice he imposes the following legal cover against law suits for their losses:
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© 2014 Copyright Marc Horn- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.”

I say no more.
[NB. Nothing written in my comments cast any aspersions of any kind on the good and honest character of Marc Horn or the high quality of his financial advice based on the information available to him and the disclaimers he requires from users of his services.]


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